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-JH

Merchanting Clans and you

Hi everyone,

As you'll surely have noticed if you've been looking around the Clans Forums, there has recently been an increase in the number of "Merchanting Clans".

Many of these clans promise that if you start with a relatively modest amount of money and follow their simple instructions, you will quickly make a fortune.

It is possible to make money from merchanting on the Grand Exchange - but it's also possible to lose money. And if someone tells you something that seems too good to be true, it probably is.

The Grand Exchange is meant to empower players to buy the items they need when they need them. Likewise, if players have made or obtained something that they don't need, the Grand Exchange can help them sell it to someone who does need it.

If you spend a lot of money on items that you don't actually want or need, you are choosing to take a risk. You might make money, but you might also lose money.

How you might lose your money

What often happens is something like this. There are variations in the details, but the overall principle is usually the same.

1. Due to the economic principle of "supply and demand", prices tend to rise when a lot of people are buying an item, and fall when a lot of people are selling.

2. A rich player, or group of rich players, will choose a specific item and buy up a large quantity. This causes the price for that item to start rising.

3. The leaders tell you that if you buy enough of the same item, the price will keep rising. They say that you should keep buying until they tell you to sell, and everyone will make money because you'll be selling for more than you paid.

4. Prices will only keep rising as long as there are more people looking to buy than there are items for sale. Once someone starts to sell in large quantities (known as "dumping" the item), the prices will fall ("crash") as the supply/demand imbalance is reversed. Anyone who doesn't react quickly enough will be left holding items that are suddenly worth a lot less than they paid.

5. Crucially, the crash will almost always be before the "sell date" publicised by the clan leaders. No-one wants to be last to sell as they would be less likely to make their money back. This means that you're essentially having to trust other players with your money. You don't control them and you probably don't even know them, but it just takes one or two of them to lose their nerve and your money evaporates.

Once again, if you choose to buy items just because you're hoping to make money by selling them on, you also need to accept the risk that you could lose money on them too.

Hopefully you now understand that you should never expect to get something for nothing.

What is Jagex's policy and how does this apply to the official Forums?
  • The Grand Exchange was consciously designed to emulate a real-life stock market in many ways. One of the most important principles is that an item is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. This is why we chose to make it possible for GE prices to rise and fall, rather than simply fixing them at static amounts.
  • We don't see anything wrong with merchanting per se. However, we do want to minimise the risk of our players losing their money because they don't understand the risks that come with trying to 'play the market'.
  • We also want to prevent dishonest players from deliberately misleading others into making unwise transactions so that they can profit at the others' expense. Of course, not all players involved in merchanting are out to scam people. However, if someone is giving you buy/sell instructions, it is almost impossible to tell in advance whether they are advising you in good faith, or whether they are actually attempting to mislead you.
  • If you do still want to try and make money by buying and selling on the Grand Exchange, that's fine as long as you're aware that you could also lose money. To minimise the risks, it's better to spread your purchases out across multiple items rather than putting all of your available funds into a large stock of a single item. Then if one of the items should crash, you won't lose everything.
  • Ultimately, the most important thing to remember is that you should never risk anything that you cannot afford to lose.


What is encouraged on the forums
  • Swapping advice on how to merchant most effectively. The main goals of a legitimate merchanting clan would be general advice, guidance, moral support and friendship.
  • Advising one another on how to follow item price rises and falls, and how to tell when to buy and sell according to price fluctuations and charts.
  • Teaching players to make their own merchanting decisions and not have to rely on a large group of people.

What is not allowed on the forums
  • Deliberately trying to scam or deceive other players. This includes telling people any false information to try and make them lose their money.
  • Making any kind of promise like "You will make millions by doing what we say." As we've explained above, trying to 'play the Exchange' is inherently risky and you can't guarantee that players will make a profit.
  • Telling others what items to buy or sell, what prices to set, and when to buy or sell. You may give advice and make recommendations, but not give absolute instructions. Everyone is free to make the trades that they personally wish to, as long as they are within the limits imposed automatically by the GE system.
  • Asking players to "advertise" a clan chat channel in-game for any period of time. This leads to the use of autotypers which are against the Rules of Conduct and cause disruption for other players.
Veni vidi vici
Excellent update:
Much needed, as half the time you don't make money.
~Vincent
John_And_Edward
Good annoucement. I find merchanting clans really annoying manipulating GE for their own reasons. What if people who buy Rune Essence get hit my merchants and they got up to 60? Hurts the Runecrafting profit.

I wish they banned them to be honest, they just lead to trouble most of the times.
Natt39
That took wayy too long...
Maybe now something to stem the amount of bots in the GE spamming the Ads for these clans?



Sparhawke
QUOTE (eeeee Combat @ Jul 8 2009, 08:41 PM) *
Good annoucement. I find merchanting clans really annoying manipulating GE for their own reasons. What if people who buy Rune Essence get hit my merchants and they got up to 60? Hurts the Runecrafting profit.

I wish they banned them to be honest, they just lead to trouble most of the times.


There simply is no viable way of banning them otherwise you have to ban everyone else who is affected by them since everything is connected, I always tell people to keep away and be responsible for their own money and that is what people need to learn to do for themselves. It is one thing to ask for hints and tips and ideas, it is quite another to basically tell people that you place all your money in their hands to gamble with effectively.
imsleepy
It seems here that Jagex is basically saying they won't be taking an active stance on manipulation clans. While it's good to see them educating players about these clans and warning them of the dangers of "investing" in such pyramid schemes, the post makes it sound like they won't be doing anything at all to prevent large clans from routinely abusing the system to make money. Their policy claims that price manipulation is part of the whole supply and demand aspect of the GE. They never state anywhere that such manipulation is against the rules, only that it advertising such behavior is discouraged on the forums, not even that engaging in this behavior in-game or outside of the official Runescape forums is frowned upon.

Sleepy's not calling for a witch hunt or nothing, but from what's written here, manipulators aren't even getting a slap on the wrist. In fact, it's not even being acknowledged that what they're doing is bad at all except in the sense that some players will be getting scammed out of their money by early dumps. She was at least hoping they'd say something like "oh yeah, and doing this messes with the economy, so please don't". huh.gif
Egghebrecht
QUOTE (imsleepy @ Jul 9 2009, 02:56 PM) *
It seems here that Jagex is basically saying they won't be taking an active stance on manipulation clans. While it's good to see them educating players about these clans and warning them of the dangers of "investing" in such pyramid schemes, the post makes it sound like they won't be doing anything at all to prevent large clans from routinely abusing the system to make money. Their policy claims that price manipulation is part of the whole supply and demand aspect of the GE. They never state anywhere that such manipulation is against the rules, only that it advertising such behavior is discouraged on the forums, not even that engaging in this behavior in-game or outside of the official Runescape forums is frowned upon.

Sleepy's not calling for a witch hunt or nothing, but from what's written here, manipulators aren't even getting a slap on the wrist. In fact, it's not even being acknowledged that what they're doing is bad at all except in the sense that some players will be getting scammed out of their money by early dumps. She was at least hoping they'd say something like "oh yeah, and doing this messes with the economy, so please don't". huh.gif

it's like luring
you can't really stop it unless you fundamently change the game

and it doesn't mess up the economy since it's influence is quite small
imsleepy
QUOTE (Egghebrecht @ Jul 9 2009, 06:04 AM) *
it's like luring
you can't really stop it unless you fundamently change the game

and it doesn't mess up the economy since it's influence is quite small


Well that's just the thing. While at first Jagex said that luring was an acceptable part of the game, they quickly retracted their original statement and said that it was indeed, a form of scamming. Jagex does address the issue of scamming, albeit in a roundabout way here:
QUOTE
5. Crucially, the crash will almost always be before the "sell date" publicised by the clan leaders. No-one wants to be last to sell as they would be less likely to make their money back. This means that you're essentially having to trust other players with your money. You don't control them and you probably don't even know them, but it just takes one or two of them to lose their nerve and your money evaporates.

Once again, if you choose to buy items just because you're hoping to make money by selling them on, you also need to accept the risk that you could lose money on them too.

Hopefully you now understand that you should never expect to get something for nothing.

but they fail to mention that the only way for a good chunk of the members of these clans to make money is to do exactly this, by passing on their items to people who buy after the crash date. The transfer of wealth will be almost entirely from newer members of the clan to older ones, a roundabout form of team scamming where the victims remain faceless. The official statement only notes that "merchanting" is at your own risk, and that letting other people tell you what to merchant is especially risky. While this statement is true, they fail to make a clear distinction between merchanting and manipulation. Merchanting carries risk for all investors, but manipulation carries no risk to established members of manipulation clans. Neither does it carry risk for new members; without the knowledge of the actual dump time, they are certain to lose money by following the clan's instructions. That's just how manipulation clans operate, the transfer of money is not always from the economy at large to the members of the clan, but from the new, gullible clan members to the older, more knowledgeable ones. It would be nice if this was established as a form of scamming, as clearly as luring was. Sure it won't eradicate it, but at least it would be known that this form of behavior isn't condoned anywhere.

As for the effects on the wholesale economy, the sum of currency of course, is zero. It may not lead to hyperinflation or a depression as far as the economy goes, but it does make certain items unpurchaseable by many players that need them for skilling and training purposes. One of the main selling points of the Grand Exchange is that it's far more convenient than trading person-to-person, but when trade is hindered on all fronts because of a purposeful clan effort, it's clear that this particular feature of the game isn't being used to its intended purpose.
Blasphemy
Good to know that people won't be scammed anymore. (Like me, they dumped Uncut Dragonstones WAAAAY before they should've)
donwonton
well playing the market always has its up's and down's
guess jagex put it out there
oh btw to all those noobs whio cant afford to merchant,jagex isn't going to stop us merching tongue.gif
Celtic
A glowing review for the current state of the runescape fanbase that jagex feels the need to hold their hands in such a way, for the fourth year running jagex successfully removes content which can involve player input. May as well take runescape offline at this rate.
Sparhawke
QUOTE (Celtic @ Jul 10 2009, 12:14 AM) *
A glowing review for the current state of the runescape fanbase that jagex feels the need to hold their hands in such a way, for the fourth year running jagex successfully removes content which can involve player input. May as well take runescape offline at this rate.


They are not holding anyones hand, not that I see. Holding players hands would be telling them what they can and cannot buy at any one time.

It may be true that many new players will buy up worthless items for double their normal price but they do have the graph to look back on, even more effectively now for 6 months of history where 30 days was next to useless...however they will be stung once and keep well away after getting good advice from existing players and their influence will eventually die out.

The players who should not be felt sorry for are those who have a good deal of spare money around who start trying to buy everything in sight that is rising too late, they are the ones who will likely lose because they simply have no plan of their own.

Sleepy made a very good post earlier and I agree with her completely, many player mods feel the same way but the trouble is that merchanting in all its forms is too entrenched in the players psyche that there is nothing to do but instead of putting a ditch around the GE simply put it in a big canyon and tell players that this is the United Soviet States of Runescape and they will pay a price that Jagex deems fair and if they dont like it they can lump it.

The best way of merchanting right now is to choose stuff that clans often get hold of due to their inherent lack of imagination and buy up massive quantities at the bottom price and then wait. Guess who bought 3800 dragonstones just for this at 40k each and is waiting for them to rise up a lot?

Like I said earlier, people have to learn responsibility for their own money and while swapping rune armour for a trimming promise can be stopped, promising people that they will likely make money due to rising prices cannot because it is true...it is up to the person involved not to be greedy and simply be out for a quick pound.
Emanick
QUOTE (Celtic @ Jul 9 2009, 07:14 PM) *
A glowing review for the current state of the runescape fanbase that jagex feels the need to hold their hands in such a way, for the fourth year running jagex successfully removes content which can involve player input. May as well take runescape offline at this rate.


I see you completely failed to notice that no actual change was made. All Jagex did was make a forum post talking about merchanting and educating the populace. Given that the level of player input they ask for (and use!) is far greater than it was a couple of years ago, your point is also completely null.
Celtic
Grand exchange itself reduced player contact by a rediculous extent in that trading is practically obsolete, in addition jagex feeling compelled to guide all the idiots through their game means no one ever learns. Jagex are playing the game, making the mistakes we should be so we dont have to. A player should have to roll with the punches not sit in a cotton candy bubble of 0 player interaction, negative experiences are important to a game or else it gets sterile and we lack motivation.

Anyone with 3 brain cells can see a pyramid scheme or scam like this. People need to learn and no one learns like this.
Emanick
QUOTE (Celtic @ Jul 9 2009, 08:01 PM) *
Grand exchange itself reduced player contact by a rediculous extent in that trading is practically obsolete, in addition jagex feeling compelled to guide all the idiots through their game means no one ever learns. Jagex are playing the game, making the mistakes we should be so we dont have to. A player should have to roll with the punches not sit in a cotton candy bubble of 0 player interaction, negative experiences are important to a game or else it gets sterile and we lack motivation.

Anyone with 3 brain cells can see a pyramid scheme or scam like this. People need to learn and no one learns like this.


Learn like what? All Jagex did is clarify the risks of merchanting clans, they didn't tell people not to join them. If you think Jagex posting a sticky on the forums educating people about clans is destroying the game, then okay, but... no.
King Reaper
yeah its so annoying

i have to get 60herb and 99fletching
but i cant do super energys cuz ran update crashed it. so im doing ranarrs but i have to buy them at 10k sleep.gif
and yews are falling badly so yeah sleep.gif
Biscuit
Does Jagex expect the general population of Runescape to actually read?
chaos9999
If real life is any guide:

Merchanting clans are likely to destroy the RS economy. If that happens, they will be key in repairing it. Of course, we can't just create new money - that leads to inflation. So, Jagex will take money from anyone who isn't in a Merchanting clan or doesn't do the 26K trick, and give it to those who do. They will drive the economy further down the toilet, Jagex will do another bailout, until the whole thing is destroyed. At that point, Jagex won't come out with any more quests involving such dastardly villains as Anna Sinclair, Evil Dave, or Kennith, because unless they are kept where they are, they will escape from their virtual prison, enter the real world, crawl up through our toilets, and steal our vital essence.

That won't happen though. The best case scenario is too optimistic.
Radiance
QUOTE
jagex feels the need to hold their hands in such a way, for the fourth year running jagex successfully removes content which can involve player input


Merchanting clans just appeared, almost like a natural side effect of the GE's arrival. The old ways of merchanting were ruined, so people decided to search for new ways, thus forming the clans. Now Jagex has come to warn people about the possible risks of joining such a clan, which I believe is perfectly right. Jagex isn't pushing players around or telling them what to do. Merchant at your own risk. If you believe a clan and seriously want to invest money into whatever item, go ahead, but understand the risks. The fact is, some people don't, and some get "brainwashed" after hearing, "make millions if you join ____'s cc."

QUOTE
it's like luring
you can't really stop it unless you fundamently change the game


Yeah, the most Jagex can do is warn people. I mean, I don't see any clear way of dissolving of merchanting clans. I personally don't like them, but you know, that's life--it has its good parts and bad parts.
Mohorak
About 90% of the things done in merchanting clans today are approved methods in today's stock markets. The people who run these clans are essentially stockbrokers who tell people where to put their money. Groups of people who invest are allowed to get together and say, "We're going to try to get this stock up and then sell all the shares we have of it", and that's basically what merchanting clans do. Jagex has said that the basis for the Grand Exchange market was, in part, to simulate a real economy and stock market. So why would they change this?

The reason for them doing anything at all about it is that people complain and whine about how they think they're getting their money stolen, so Jagex goes with the voice of the people (no-one's saying to Jagex: "Good game, I love being able to [mess] with the economy!" so all they hear are bad reports) and speaks out. However, Jagex realizes that none of this is strictly against the rules, but wants to shut the whiners up anyway. That is what this is about.


It's like the USA saying, "You shouldn't smoke" and giving all these reasons and restrictions but acknowledging the right of the citizens to kill themselves in a disgusting and disturbing way.
Extreme Steak
What do you report people on who are advertising for merchanting clans? I see them all the time and they can say about half a paragraph in 3 seconds what do you report them for?
Mohorak
QUOTE (Markbalex @ Jul 24 2009, 07:01 PM) *
What do you report people on who are advertising for merchanting clans? I see them all the time and they can say about half a paragraph in 3 seconds what do you report them for?

Macroing.
Kemosabe
QUOTE (Biscuit @ Jul 10 2009, 02:52 PM) *
Does Jagex expect the general population of Runescape to actually read?

Exactly. The type of people who are actually lured into being scammed of their money are the type of people who usually don't browse forums. If Jagex wants to get a message across, the should actually put an update on the main page, which is more likely to be read, or they should just use those login hints that you get in the login screen.
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