The Way of the Fin

Midterm approval ratings mean absolutely nothing.

Personally, I hope he does. I want somebody other than Trump or Palin to win.

Midterm approval ratings mean absolutely nothing.

 

EDIT:

Also

"Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

April 29-30, 2011"

 

Pathetic. Convince me with a survey of 100,000 people, not 1,000.

Personally, I hope he does. I want somebody other than Trump or Palin to win.

?????????

Pathetic. Convince me with a survey of 100,000 people, not 1,000.

Look at RealClearPolitics for a net approval rating (it's been negative recently, but that's going up) of half a dozen or so major polling firms daily. Also, look at the graph throughout his presidency. I understand that midterm elections mean nothing, but record-low numbers in favor of repeal of the healthcare bill coupled with this news mean both long and short-term positive numbers for Obama.

 

Listen, I'm no huge Obama supporter. I just think this whole news is intriguing over the past few days.

Yes, but not (solely) because of this. More important, there are no viable Republican candidates and most Presidents who run for reelection win anyway.

Midterm approval ratings mean absolutely nothing.

 

EDIT:

Also

"Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

April 29-30, 2011"

 

Pathetic. Convince me with a survey of 100,000 people, not 1,000.

1,000 ought to be enough for some purposes. Properly conducted surveys of 1,000 people can generally reduce sampling error enough to reduce electoral victory margins to within 3-4 points of the true margin. (Trust me; I have my AP Statistics exam next week.)

 

Venom is right, though, that midterm approval ratings are fairly worthless. Obama's chances for reelection are pretty good, but the approval polls right now don't mean much; George H.W. Bush hit 90% in 1991 and then lost the election. Obama, like Clinton, will never get to 90%. What convinces me that Obama has a good shot is the GOP field's weakness, not Obama's ratings.

Midterm approval ratings mean absolutely nothing.

 

EDIT:

Also

"Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters

April 29-30, 2011"

 

Pathetic. Convince me with a survey of 100,000 people, not 1,000.

1,000 ought to be enough for some purposes. Properly conducted surveys of 1,000 people can generally reduce sampling error enough to reduce electoral victory margins to within 3-4 points of the true margin. (Trust me; I have my AP Statistics exam next week.)

 

Venom is right, though, that midterm approval ratings are fairly worthless. Obama's chances for reelection are pretty good, but the approval polls right now don't mean much; George H.W. Bush hit 90% in 1991 and then lost the election. Obama, like Clinton, will never get to 90%. What convinces me that Obama has a good shot is the GOP field's weakness, not Obama's ratings.

Weakness meaning "not showing up for the election at all might produce a better outcome." :P

I'm thinking that Obama will get re-elected as the economy improves and as health care becomes a dormant issue; with those two major issues no longer a problem for him and with people overall happier with the state things are running, less important issues will surface, namely the social ones which most people vote Democratic on. It is true that the Republicans don't have a strong candidate to oppose him. Yet. :D