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reepicheep

My Little Mafia

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On my phone so I'm not going to post anything long, for now. Goggie, you're reasoning for thinking I'm scum is fair enough. I thought that Lonely was Gonzyy's scum partner but then while looking back on the thread and the way that both of them have been playing convinced me that Jethraw is his scum partner.

 

If we lynch Gonzyy or Jethraw today it makes sense that you'd be the one Nked tomorrow. It wouldn't make sense for me to get Nked because that'd just prove my claim as tracker.

 

I want you and Lonely to look back and then look throughout the game for every possible scum combination, being:

 

Fake + Lonely

Fake + Gonzyy

Fake + Jethraw

Lonely + Gonzyy

Lonely + Jethraw

Jethraw + Gonzyy

 

Fake edit: Will post responses and such when I'm on a computer.

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I'm not entirely sure I have enough time on my hands to go through every single combination, considering every possible post and its possible links to other players. The more effective thing for me to do imo is to look since the beginning of yesterday, and how things changed when Adam? was under pressure. Any further back than that and i'll just be spreading it too thinly. I can't help but think that you're sending us on a wild goose chase.

 

You're being completely unclear with when you change your mind. The sudden jumps from 'Lonely scum' to 'Lonely town' and 'Jethraw we both know you are town' to 'Jethraw is scum' all in the space of a couple of IRL days is just mad. Speaking in absolutes only to change your mind is never going to look appealing when it comes to trying to convince people you are right.

 

For a start Lonely and Jethraw aren't a pair, i've already been through why (they would've won already)

 

Of the other 5, based on what's happened recently:

 

Fake and Lonely: probably my top choice right now, because you two have been getting increasingly erratic since around Adam?'s death, but then in my eyes Lonely has been quite erratic all game.

Fake and Gonzyy: an outside bet, bussing each other is risky but if pulled off could work very well.

Fake and Jethraw: another possibility, despite Fake's increasingly erratic posting is sticking by Fake's claim.

Jethraw and Gonzyy: if these two are a pair then they're playing it smart by my reckoning. If either of these are correctly lynched tonight then I doubt that the other would be correctly lynched the next day.

 

That's an incredibly crude list but , I'd rather see what others have to say about the rough ideas first. I'm still leaning towards not going with Fake's claim, it seems pretty transferable to scum and he only needs us to believe him for one night for scum to win.

 

EBWOP: Missed out Lonely and Gonzyy: tbh that idea doesn't jump at me. There are reasons individually for why both could be scum, but they wouldn't be either of my top choices for lynch tonight, nor do they jump out at me as a team. Again, if this is a team, it's going pretty swell for them right now.

 

I'll have to look more through Jethraw + Gonzyy and Gonzyy and Lonely.

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The thing for me is I'd struggle to place any scum pair above the other at this point, and the longer the days wears on the more it would make more sense for Fake and Gonzyy to be a scumpair, but individually they just don't seem to be the two most likely candidates.

 

Fake comes out with a strong claim in the start of the day implicating Gonzyy. The two have back and forth throughout the day. Let's say we lynch Gonzyy and he flips scum - would we be likely to lynch Fake tomorrow? Highly doubtful. Let's say Fake get's lynched today - would we be likely to lynch Gonzyy tomorrow? Highly doubtful.

 

That being said on an individual level I can't make any of it add up.

 

For me: Lonely stands head and shoulders above everyone else in terms of who is playing a scumgame for reasons I've explained throughout the day.

 

Fake's total flip flop throughout this day, using such strong terms "you know you are town" only to do a complete 180 just isn't fathomable or rational, and like I've said, just screams desperation.

 

Gonzyy : Has been implicated by Fake and I really can't come up with an argument that would prove his claim false - but watching the to and fro between them I can't help but feel Fake's argument has gaping flaws and Gonzyy's handling of himself has been a pretty damn impressive town outing by anyone's standards with regards to his response too Fake.

 

I honestly don't think there's any chance we're going to come up with a definite scumpair or decide who we should be applying pressure on for Day -6. I think the only way we can really approach this is by keeping everyone in mind on an individual level, rather than looking for the complete pairing. Unless someone else can think of something I've missed with regards to pairing, because I can't make any of them make perfect sense.

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Here's another point I've been thinking

 

(This is suggesting if Fake and Gonzyy's claims were false)

Fake claimed a power role which could've been very risky because there could've been the same role. Whereas Gonzyy took the easy way out and went vanilla.

 

 

 

 

When I get home ill do the combinations thing

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THEN when Jethraw voted for Lonely, Fake switched his story so that Lonely is now the town and Jethraw is now the likely mafia. As I've already said this could be to either (1) pressure Jethraw into defensive mode so that he does switch his vote to me or (2) Make you (Goggie) see only me or Jethraw as potential lynch candidates then the second you cast your vote him and Lonely could hammer.

 

1) Look at Jethraw's play style the entire game. He's been fairly aggressive throughout the whole game, even when he was being called scum by Lilshu and Adam? for a while. Did he go into defensive mode or switch his vote that quickly? No, if anything he responded aggressively as well and he's been playing that way throughout the whole game. That's very shoddy reasoning, imo.

 

2) As Goggie said he is definitely going to be the last vote since he's the only confirmed townie. Goggie, forget about me for a second but why do you think Lonely's scum? Unless I'm mistaken this has been his playstyle the whole game, were you always suspicious of him?

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Fake + Lonely

 

Fake + Gonzyy, very unlikely, and if they were to be it would be a risky tactic as many have stated

 

Fake + Jethraw, sure they could be, just don't see it. Especially with his change of heart on him. Does anyone else think that Fake's change of heart on Jethraw could possibly be a tactic to distance themselves from eachother?

 

Lonely + Gonzyy

 

Lonely + Jethraw

 

Jethraw + Gonzyy, probably the most likely pair for me at the moment, but that being said it's not a 100% definite belief.

 

 

I'm still very uncertain of a Jethraw and Gonzyy pair, or any other pair. Is there a possibility that there is only 1 mafia left and maybe, just say, a Vigilante?

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Fake + Lonely

 

Fake + Gonzyy, very unlikely, and if they were to be it would be a risky tactic as many have stated

 

Fake + Jethraw, sure they could be, just don't see it. Especially with his change of heart on him. Does anyone else think that Fake's change of heart on Jethraw could possibly be a tactic to distance themselves from eachother?

 

Lonely + Gonzyy

 

Lonely + Jethraw

 

Jethraw + Gonzyy, probably the most likely pair for me at the moment, but that being said it's not a 100% definite belief.

 

Any reasoning to go with this?

 

I'm still very uncertain of a Jethraw and Gonzyy pair, or any other pair. Is there a possibility that there is only 1 mafia left and maybe, just say, a Vigilante?

Considering there's been one death per night every night except where there've been modkills I'd call it more than unlikely.

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Severely disliking how this is going. At this point i'm still looking towards Fake as the best lynch option, he's seemed incredibly unconvincing all day today, and I agree that we're unlikely to unearth the pair today.

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Discussion seems to have ground to a halt, which isn't entirely surprising.

Like I said - there's no chance of decisively deciding on a pair, and obviously there's no second chances.

Whilst I maintain that Lonely has been the scummiest of the remaining players, there's no getting away from the fact that we have to get a scumlynch, and either Gonzyy or Fake are definitely scum.

 

I think it's time to start winding down the day and gettings the votes in now that there's about 48 hours left.

Currently both Gonzyy and Fake are both on L-2, having one vote each.

 

There's also no time that I'm going to be able to cast my vote without Fake dragging up his arguments on the previous few pages which were the kind of arguments that suggest "I can say what I want to you here and there's no way you can turn on me without that making you scum" - see his post which asks did 'I believe his claim any less now that he's accusing me of being scum' for what I mean by that.

 

The thing is, Fake had a pretty credible claim, albeit one with no real evidence, and it was one that Gonzyy had no proof to refute it with. Fakes then total turn around and Gonzyy's subsequent handling of himself are the only things that convince me that Gonzyy is not the person we should be going after today, but should be kept a very close eye on during Day -6 as him and Fake seem to be the most logical scum pair, albeit that's still more of a gut feeling at this stage.

 

vote Fake

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So let me get this straight. Gonzyy and me are the most logical scum pair yet despite my claim, which I do believe you said you would act on, you vote for me. Whereas I admit me jumping from Lonely to you doesn't put me in a good light, my case on Gonzyy has always been the same but somehow you're using that to sanction a vote on me? Look at my post #902, where I address him.

 

Also, Lonely is the scummiest player in your eyes but Gonzyy and me are a possible scum player. If I was scum, along with Gonzyy, we could've easily waited for Lonely, for example, to try to vote for Jethraw. I also like that throughout the whole day you've believed my claim but when it comes time to vote I suddenly come out on top as more scummy. Especially since your reason for voting me has been my play style throughout the day, despite the fact I've played the same throughout the day and you believed me before. For some reason though casting a vote made you change your opinion from Gonzyy to me. Am I the only one who sees how scummy this is?

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yet despite my claim, which I do believe you said you would act on, you vote for me.

I'm sorry, but on what rational planet is this any form of logical? Sure I said I'd vote for Gonzyy if he proved to be the best choice for scum, but you made sure that wasn't the case by the erratic and unfathomable posts you've made over the past few days.

 

my case on Gonzyy has always been the same but somehow you're using that to sanction a vote on me?

No, I'm sanctioning my vote for you based off the complete turn around in attitude you adopted towards the day which, at the risk of repeating myself, screamed desperation. The point I was trying to make was that had you left it before the 180 turn I don't think I could have logically justified a vote for anyone other than Gonzyy.

 

Look at my post #902, where I address him.

I'm not sure exactly what that proves. I've said in my own words that your posts came off as nothing more than trying to goad either me or Gonzyy into voting one another, so your response to Gonzyy doesn't change how you came off in your posting.

 

Also, Lonely is the scummiest player in your eyes but Gonzyy and me are a possible scum player.

No, between you and Gonzyy there are definite scum, possibly two, which is why I'm advocating going for the less risky option so that we have the chance to decide who the partner is tomorrow.

 

If I was scum, along with Gonzyy, we could've easily waited for Lonely, for example, to try to vote for Jethraw.

Maybe, but Lonely hasn't advocated voting for me once so far today, didn't vote on the previous day, and didn't contribute to the active lynch the day before. There's nothing to suggest that this was ever a feasible plan from the get-go.

 

I also like that throughout the whole day you've believed my claim but when it comes time to vote I suddenly come out on top as more scummy.

I've never outright said I believed it, I said I'm inclined to based off the grounds that Gonzyy can't disprove it, n'or can anyone else. But the fact that you couldn't prove it yourself meant that your actions and words (both yours and Gonzyy's) played a massive role in deciding how effective your claim would be.

 

Especially since your reason for voting me has been my play style throughout the day, despite the fact I've played the same throughout the day and you believed me before.

There are absolutely zero similarities between your original, collected roleclaim and your erratic turn around that's accused everyone but Goggie of being scum and everyone but Gonzyy of being town at some point or other.

 

Given that Goggie won't be voting last (a measure both yourself and Gonzyy have approved of) and the fact that Lonely hasn't voted since Day -4 I don't really see as I had much option other than to set the ball rolling here.

 

EBWOP: Goggie won't be voting until last

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There are absolutely zero similarities between your original, collected roleclaim and your erratic turn around that's accused everyone but Goggie of being scum and everyone but Gonzyy of being town at some point or other.

 

My original, collected role claim accused Gonzyy of being scum. There was nothing more said about you or Lonely, except that I found him scum. Reasons being that his erratic play led me to believe that he was scum. Then, I realized that his play style wasn't him being scum, it was just the way he plays. After that the only logical option to be scum was, you. I don't understand what's wrong with changing opinions on who scum is. (Albeit I did it in a bad way, I guess.)

 

Maybe, but Lonely hasn't advocated voting for me once so far today, didn't vote on the previous day, and didn't contribute to the active lynch the day before. There's nothing to suggest that this was ever a feasible plan from the get-go.

 

Lonely:

Jethraw + Gonzyy, probably the most likely pair for me at the moment, but that being said it's not a 100% definite belief.

 

The point I was trying to make was that had you left it before the 180 turn I don't think I could have logically justified a vote for anyone other than Gonzyy.

 

Except Lonely, which would've ended the game for town.

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My original, collected role claim accused Gonzyy of being scum. There was nothing more said about you or Lonely, except that I found him scum.

I'm struggling with how to respond to this one. Your original post categorically said Gonzyy was scum, Goggie was town and I was town, and therefore Lonely had to be scum. No, you're absolutely right in saying there's nothing wrong with changing your opinion on who is scum, but to say you did it "in a bad way, I guess" is the whole reason that your argument just hasn't been one I can get behind. The fact that you spoke so definitively in your opening post like you've got the game saved for us only to then do a complete shift is the reason that you've skyrocketed in terms of suspicion.

 

Then, I realized that his play style wasn't him being scum, it was just the way he plays.

I don't even understand this - how does it "just being the way he plays" make him town? Are any of us playing in a way other than the way we play? What?

 

Except Lonely, which would've ended the game for town.

My vote for Lonely was on the premise that it didn't leave him L-1 (and no matter how you spin it, either you are Gonzyy ((or both)) are scum, and both had your votes locked on eachother) and was retracted shortly later without either you or Gonzyy making a post. Moreover, Lonely stated himself that there was no sense in voting for me today when we know that either you or Gonzyy are guaranteed scum. So this is a complete falsehood.

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Then, I realized that his play style wasn't him being scum, it was just the way he plays.

I don't even understand this - how does it "just being the way he plays" make him town? Are any of us playing in a way other than the way we play? What?

 

 

His play style to me suggested that he was trying to play low ki, not really forming much of an opinion on anything and not putting to much pressure or receiving to much pressure. IMO if he was scum he would've tried harder, at least this day, to try to form a more aggressive opinion to help scum win the day, albeit the same thing can be said about town this is just my gut feeling.

 

 

but to say you did it "in a bad way, I guess" is the whole reason that your argument just hasn't been one I can get behind

 

I said that now, you've been criticizing that from the start, calling my play style erratic, and such.

So tell me, what's made my play style so erratic?

 

EBWOP: Messed up with the quotes and font changed.

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His play style to me suggested that he was trying to play low ki, not really forming much of an opinion on anything and not putting to much pressure or receiving to much pressure. IMO if he was scum he would've tried harder, at least this day, to try to form a more aggressive opinion to help scum win the day, albeit the same thing can be said about town this is just my gut feeling.

Of all the remaining players, I think it's a fair thing to state I'm the only person who hasn't been pretty damn low key throughout the entire game. Not having an opinion on anyone, not providing anything productive to the town and keeping an exceptionally low profile are not qualities I would attribute to town play, by the way.

 

So tell me, what's made my play style so erratic?

I'm not even sure why I'm humouring this question, given that we both know what I mean, as do the other three players in the game.

The fact you categorically stated myself and Goggie were town, followed up by some shodding reasoning justifying the hammer on Adam?, claiming allowing him to post would have set up a scum win (which you immediately back pedalled on by saying Adam? wouldn't have left a trail). Some to-and-fro between you and Gonzyy which somehow led you to conclude that I was now definite scum. The way this came off as looking was that you'd tried getting me to vote for Gonzyy, but I wasn't biting that easily, so you immediately decided it would make more sense to try and get Lonely to vote for Gonzyy, and throwing out totally loaded questions designed to get a rise out of anyone who'd bite. After that there was a lot of to-and-fro between you and Gonzyy which, like I said, was handled in a far better manner than yourself. Your posts have been riddled with logic holes which have continued to this very post.

 

EBWOP: Last line should read 'by Gonzyy than yourself.'

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Here's another point I've been thinking (This is suggesting if Fake and Gonzyy's claims were false) Fake claimed a power role which could've been very risky because there could've been the same role. Whereas Gonzyy took the easy way out and went vanilla. When I get home ill do the combinations thing

I'm confused as to what you're trying to say here. Please clarify.

 

THEN when Jethraw voted for Lonely, Fake switched his story so that Lonely is now the town and Jethraw is now the likely mafia. As I've already said this could be to either (1) pressure Jethraw into defensive mode so that he does switch his vote to me or (2) Make you (Goggie) see only me or Jethraw as potential lynch candidates then the second you cast your vote him and Lonely could hammer.
1) Look at Jethraw's play style the entire game. He's been fairly aggressive throughout the whole game, even when he was being called scum by Lilshu and Adam? for a while. Did he go into defensive mode or switch his vote that quickly? No, if anything he responded aggressively as well and he's been playing that way throughout the whole game. That's very shoddy reasoning, imo. 2) As Goggie said he is definitely going to be the last vote since he's the only confirmed townie. Goggie, forget about me for a second but why do you think Lonely's scum? Unless I'm mistaken this has been his playstyle the whole game, were you always suspicious of him?

 

I wasn't analysing Jethraws playstyle was I, I was analysing yours. And again you're using the argument of "Well that's stupid and so OBVIOUSLY I wouldn't have done that!" as a way to respond and attempt to discredit my points. You changed your mind about Jethraws alignment BEFORE goggie said he was going to vote last, so again invalid reasoning.

 

I said that now, you've been criticizing that from the start, calling my play style erratic, and such.

So tell me, what's made my play style so erratic?

 

EBWOP: Messed up with the quotes and font changed.

 

er·rat·ic

 

/iˈratik/

 

Adjective

 

Not even or regular in pattern or movement; unpredictable.

 

 

Your playstyle throughout this day has been completely irregular and unpredictable. It's impossible for us to actually analyse your posts throughout the game because you've very much gone with the town majority throughout the game, offering no new insights or extra prods or pushes on different players. I get that most of us have been inactive, but you've literally offered us nothing and then come out with the fact you're tracker at the start of the day and expect everyone to buy it. Frankly it seems like you went away and you were told by your scumbuddy to claim a power-role to get the final push.

 

I really don't see what more there is to say, as I think all arguments have nearly been exhausted.

 

 

I'm heading off now, if Goggie does end the game whilst I'm asleep I think it's safe to say either he or I will be dead tonight but it will be important to look at both Jethraw and Lonely independent of other players tomorrow.

 

EBWOP bbcode y u mess up. Also it's colour -_-.

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well Gonzyy what i was meaning was that claiming a vanilla role is much more hassle free because you don't need to conjure up a story about your night actions and such. If false-claiming as a vanilla townie there is going to be little chance that someone has the exact same role as you (i.e the name of a pony). Thus false-claiming as a power role is more troublesome.

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well Gonzyy what i was meaning was that claiming a vanilla role is much more hassle free because you don't need to conjure up a story about your night actions and such. If false-claiming as a vanilla townie there is going to be little chance that someone has the exact same role as you (i.e the name of a pony). Thus false-claiming as a power role is more troublesome.

 

It's standard practise for mafia to claim a false role, to either try and force a CC to eliminate other power roles at night, or to simply try and force a vote on a towny. There is only one way to refute a role claim if there isn't a CC and that's to test the guilty (lynch me) and when I flip innocent lynch Fake tomorrow as you'd know he was mafia when you learnt he lied about the report. Now obviously at this point testing the guilty isn't possible as if it is wrong, town loses and you can't lynch Fake anyway. How difficult do you think it is to fake a report?

 

E.g. I'm the watcher. This means that each night I choose one person to watch and I find out who visits them.

 

Night 1 - I watched Lonely and Entrility visited. Since Lonely didn't die I knew Entrility was probably a town sided power role.

Night 2 - I watched Fake and nobody visited.

Night 3 - I watched Adam? and Kamil visited.

Night 4 - I watched Kamil and Fake visited.

 

Goggie you know you're town. Jethraw you know you're town. I am certain that Fake is mafia. Now let's lynch him and win the game!

 

Obviously that's not my true role. But it's very easy to look at reports that have been given by dead players (who can't refute them or have posts backing them up). And the second someone believed my claim and voted Fake I could hammer. My point is: it's not as difficult as you seem to think to fake a role-claim if you've played those roles before or are knowledgeable on mafia. Fake has played quite a number of games I believe, so he's fairly well informed on what different roles are and what they do; it wouldn't be difficult for him to fake a roleclaim. It's an extremely well-used and viable technique for mafia to win games. Town has no other information to go on, and is naturally trusting of someone claiming a power-role as they want someone to give the responsibility of the game to.

 

Also in terms of you thinking he'd be CC'd by a real tracker. Say that you're (Lonely) his scumbuddy. He knows that Jethraw isn't a tracker as he's come close to being lynched before and didn't claim the power role, which any real tracker would have done. If Goggie did CC then obviously we'd lynch Fake. > in turn I or Goggie would die that night > the following day we don't know whether Jethraw or Lonely are town and it's a 3 way lylo > HIGH chances of a mafia win if they play it right. So there's relatively low risk of being CC'd by another power role, and that risk is DEFINITELY worth faking a role-claim.

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Good point you make there Gonzyy. Did not consider that last paragraph of information.

 

But there's one more question, you say you were the easiest player to target and that's why he has done so. Why do you think you're the easiest target? I mean, you can clearly defend yourself well and if he went for me then I'd clearly be lynched already

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The deadline is still on the 19th at 9PM CET (GMT+2)

Votecount:

 

Fake (2) - Gonzyy, Jethraw

Gonzyy (1) - Fake

 

Those who haven't voted yet (2) - Goggie, Lonely

 

With 5 left it takes 3 to lynch.

Fake is at L-1, Gonzyy at L-2

Edited by reepicheep

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Good point you make there Gonzyy. Did not consider that last paragraph of information.

 

But there's one more question, you say you were the easiest player to target and that's why he has done so. Why do you think you're the easiest target? I mean, you can clearly defend yourself well and if he went for me then I'd clearly be lynched already

 

Because yesterday Jethraw was convinced I was scum and was pushing for me and Goggie quite hard. Goggie was proven to be town. Since Jethraw's track record for getting whoever he wants lynched is pretty high I think if Fake thought he faked a report on me alongside Jethraws suspicions I'd be very easy to kill today and the day would be over extremely quick. No other players have really listed you as suspicious before today, but my activity has been labelled as suspicious by nearly everybody.

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Before Goggie or Lonely hammer I'd like to get one more post in, which I'll do later today.

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Ok so I never thought it would come down to either Fake or Gonzyy (until the start of this day, obviously) thus I am gobsmacked as to who I am going to pick.

 

 

Fake and Jethraw, sure. Jethraw has him voted but that could easily just be a way to distance himself from Fake when/if he gets lynched.

 

Gonzyy and Fake, sure. They're both experienced mafia players and they could surely pull off this bussing tactic.

 

Gonzyy and Jethraw, sure. Both have Fake voted, wanting to hopefully get Goggie or myself to hammer the lynch thus mafia win.

 

The last one just stands out as the most likely to me. I would vote Gonzyy therefore putting them both at L-1 but I don't want to put that pressure on Goggie. It will eventually most likely come down to this though as I will be asleep around the time of the deadline.

 

But I will make my mind up after this said post from Fake.

 

 

Actually this is an idea;

Jethraw why are you now sided with Gonzyy when, as he said, the day before you had him pinned as scum?

(This actually makes me think its more Fake and Jethraw now)

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