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Phoenix Rider

Much Ado About (North) Korea

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With tensions rising in the Korean peninsula, both sides sabre rattling about nuclear war and this board in desperate need of some activity, I thought I'll ask you guys your opinion.

What should be done about North Korea? How should the US/ the World proceed with the current crisis?

I'll be posting my views later once others has posted theirs. We'll have a discussion. Things may get heated (hopefully) and I'll have done my small part to try and spur forum activity.

Here's a quick summary of what's been happening in the last couple of weeks:

July 28: North Korea launches its second intercontinental ballistic missile this month, sending the projectile 600 miles into the Sea of Japan. Trump said in a statement that North Korea's test launch "is only the latest reckless and dangerous action by the North Korean regime."

July 29: Kim said the latest missile test shows that his country can hit the U.S. mainland. The view is shared by U.S. analysts who say a stretch from Los Angeles and Chicago now appears technically within range of the North's weapons.J

July 30: The U.S. flew two B-1 bombers over South Korea in a show of force after North Korea's missile test. Vice President Pence said the U.S. and its allies plan to increase pressure on North Korea to end its nuclear program. "The era of strategic patience is over," Pence said. "The president of the United States is leading a coalition of nations to bring pressure to bear until that time that North Korea will permane ntly abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile program.”

 Aug. 1: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the United States does not seek a regime change in North Korea and would agree to a dialogue with the secretive nation if it abandons its nuclear weapons program.

Aug. 2: The U.S. Air Force successfully test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile from the California coast. The unarmed Minuteman 3 missile was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, about 130 miles northwest of Los Angeles. It was the fourth such test this year. 

Aug. 5: The United Nations Security Council unanimously approved tough new U.S.-drafted sanctions against North Korea that include a ban on coal and other exports worth over $1 billion.

Aug. 6: China's foreign minister urged North Korea to halt its missile and nuclear testing, one day after China and Russia joined with the United States in the U.N. sanctions vote.

Aug. 7: North Korea responded to the sanctions by saying it would launch “thousands-fold” revenge against the United States.

Aug. 8: Trump lashed out at North Korea. saying the rogue regime risks "fire and fury like the world has never seen" after The Washington Post reported that the communist nation has produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles. 

Aug. 9: North Korea threatened a missile strike on the U.S. territory of Guam in the South Pacific, where the U.S. has military installations, according to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency. 

Edited by Phoenix Rider

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The best possible scenario is that tensions die down. No one in the world wants a conflict of this magnitude to happen, and those thinking it would be a quick walk in the park are sorely mistaken. 

The North Koreans have one of the largest standing armies in the world - many contest it to actually be the biggest, but with a country of such secrecy of course the actual figures are unknown. We do know from images and videos that the technology they are using is quite antiquated, WWII-era weaponry. Nonetheless it's all moot if they possess nuclear weapons. If the USA invades it doesn't need to worry about a strike on its homeland. It does need to worry about a strike on its ally South Korea though. Seoul is a stone's throw away from the Korean DMZ and would be an ideal target for a short-range ballistic missile or nuclear weapon if the North Koreans decided to attack/retaliate. 

Of course in the end the combined powers of the USA/South Korea would overwhelm North Korea, and they know that, which is why they won't do anything unless the country becomes suicidal (it might). But if NK struck first, I feel even China would condemn their actions and band against them. NK knows it's in a lose-lose situation if they decide to fight - again which is why they likely won't. 

But even if we did go to war, even with the eventual and almost definite victory, what would we do about the country? Reunite it with SK? Give it to China? What about the 25 million Koreans who live there? We know many live in fear, many are malnourished, many hate their government.. but what about those brainwashed to the point of jingoism? They might indeed have intense national pride and would fight like the Japanese in WWII and the Vietnamese in Vietnam with their fullest of strength until the very end using women and children as well. 

In the end, my view is NK won't do anything because they know it will be a losing battle. A war might wage for years, but in the end they know they are outmatched. So, to make sure they don't do anything, and to remind them of their place on the world stage, I feel that the US, SK, Russia, China, etc must show a great display of strength in order to make them realize the futility of the situation. If we let them keep throwing ICBM's around and let it happen they'll keep pushing the envelope. If we show them our strength and threaten to blow them back to the stone age it might be the only way to get them to listen. 

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The tactic of strategic patience might yield greater success now that China is much more willing to cooperate with the international community's sanctions than they have been in previous decades.

To add an extra element that could undermine the current North Korean regime, we should send over Dennis Rodman with increasing frequency, then suddenly prohibit his entry as part of a new package of sanctions. This would send Kim Jong-un into an unprecedented state of disarray, and their government might collapse as a result.

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From what I understand, a lot of what's happening is just noise. 

The North Korean regime don't want to go to war with the USA, they know they'll be annihilated. If they strike first, they lose all of their support. The US doesn't want to strike first, because they'll piss off everyone in the region and lose a lot of influence.

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The problem is both the US and North Korea can't make a move without being absolutely sure it will be fine and have as little consequences as possible. So we have our current situation with two barking dogs. They are chained up barking and it's unpleasant but they can't actually do anything.

However, it can't be ignored that North Korea's technology is advancing fast, something they are very keen to tell everyone about. Which is perfect, because at least we know what they are doing. But we can't just sit around and watch forever. That's the problem. Watch as the enemy improves and do nothing, or interfere and become the bad guy.

I don't see diplomatic resolution being possible at this stage. North Korea clearly will not cooperate and will continue to be sanctioned. So what happens between all of these countries? Well the more time North Korea have is time to prepare their armies and continue working on better weaponry. We can reduce their resources and put pressure on their allies, which is what is happening now.

I think the war either starts with North Korea going up against the south and then getting itself destroyed by America with a huge loss of life in the south and north of korea. Either that or North Korea will advance to a point where they are confident they can take on the US.

I've got a better idea. Let's goad Putin into fighting Kim Jong Un. Then the US can jump in and 'accidentally' bomb them both. The british will be here drinking Tea waiting for all this malarky to finish.

Edit: You know what will happen. Trump will finally convince the mexicans to pay for a wall. The wall will get built and then North Korea will bomb it.

Edited by Fatalysm

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Opinionated analysis from an American: The KCNA's warning  to the US that brings up NK's stability since the Korean war is implying the USA is to blame for an ongoing societal issue internally, when "imperialism" and "communist Russia" is clearly to blame. Nonetheless,  if NK makes the first rebuttal to this conflict China will step down, and we don't need media backing up our stance as a superpower title-claiming imperialist to live up to title's implication. This  concept is ever so inevitable not to visualize with our history of initial nuclear response to political unrest and denigration, not to mention amidst war.

^Opinionated TLDR version: North Korea attacking first will end their country's relevance and communist population.

Rationally opinionated speculation: The only concerning North Korean(s) are the heirs and the defense initiator. Rattling up random North Korean troop stations for the sake of intimidation isn't exactly a long term move. In other words, the only way out of this for USA is to wait for an attack and get to work or kill off the directly responsible party and hope for the best, the latter questioning our next move as far as retaliation goes, and the first option leaving only room for North Korea to honk their pathetic horns long enough for their proclaimed allies to dispute them. But like Kemosabe stated, almost all of the barked coverage on media is literally noise with no salt whatsoever. 

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For now, USA has no choice but to negotiate with NoKor. What Trump is doing is just fanning the fire. I feel affected. I spent 5 years of my childhood in Guam. I can just imagine how scared the people there are. 

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