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Russia / Ukraine


gazisere

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Better late than never...

Russia invaded Ukraine in a 30 day special military operation over a year ago. It now looks as if Putin is weaker than ever and Russia may be on the brink of civil war.

Thoughts?

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It's a very weird war.

 

Russia: We have extremely powerful nukes; do not threaten us. We will come down on you faster than Duriel321 abused players during the Falador Massacre.

Rest O' The World: Sanctions, that's what you'll get. You're pretty naughty children thinking you can do whatever you want.

Ukraine: Okay, sanctions are fine, but please actually help us. To be clear, are you getting involved?

Russia: If you get involved, It will be very bad for you, do not forget that we are a significant nuclear power.

Rest O' The World: More sanctions. If you don't stop soon, we will be cross!

Ukraine: Please, for the love of god, actually help us. Why don't you send people in? This is relentless.

Russia: WE ARE A NUCLEAR POWER. IF YOU STEP OUT OF LINE, WE WILL DESTROY YOU.

Russia: WE ARE STRONG, POWERFUL, AND YOU SHOULD NOT QUESTION US.

Russia: I PROMISE THAT WE ARE REAL POWERFUL. YOU SHOULD BE SCARED ABOUT WHAT WE CAN DO.

User Russia has been timed out for flooding.

 

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I am entirely pro-Ukraine. At the beginning of the war I was living in Greece, which isn’t too far from Ukraine, with Kiev not being that far away using modern transportation means. There was a bit of fear in the air that the country and Europe would get dragged into a war.

There are many conflicts in the world currently, and Europeans get called out often for prioritizing Ukraine over everywhere else where suffering is taking place. I understand and accept the critiques as an European citizen, but I also don’t feel it’s objectively wrong of Europe to focus more in a war in Europe, that’s being covered by European news agencies as an European conflict.

I believe it to be only normal to focus at the problem home first, even if I openly accept and feel a bit of shame we don’t care as much about the suffering elsewhere.

That being said I’m entirely pro-Ukraine. I have Ukrainian and Russian friends, the Ukrainian friends either already lived here or were forced to move here when the war began. The Russian friends moved here before the war, and while I’m fully aware probably not even most immigrants despise their government, the ones I’m friends with are ashamed of what’s happening and unsupportive of Putin’s regime.

I’ve been following the conflict for a long time, since the Maidan Revolution. I’ve always been interested in geopolitics and history, so events like these are fascinating to me even if I’d rather not witness them happen. The poor citizens of Ukraine do not deserve what’s happening to their country.

There are a few points that I would like to highlight.

I’m not blind to the fact Ukrainians also commit war crimes, even if at a much lower scale than the Russian forces. The European news don’t like to bring attention to this, and it’s understandable not only for propaganda reasons but also because truthfully they’re very few compared to everything the Russian forces are doing. However, if I feel it’s a mistake to deny it happens occasionally, as it only adds fuel to the criticism of pro-Russian media and supporters. War is terrible, war crimes needs to be condemned no matter the side.

The Russian side is however doing truly despicable, and unspeakable things. The massacres at Bucha and others were SS tier crimes.

Putin’s speeches emulate Hitler’s. Sometimes he paraphrases Hitler so evidently that it shocks me there’s still individuals trying to defend him. Russia’s strategy books feel taken directly from WW2’s OKW / Hitler’s cabinet.

I am honestly surprised at the resilience Ukraine has shown in the defense of their country, but also very sad at the high losses this terrible war has cost them.

In regards to the short lived “rebellion” I also have a few things to say.

I acknowledge Ukraine had an ultra-nationalist group with ties to neo-nazism, the Azov. They’re most extinct now, as war casualties, but it’s important to stress the reason they were ever given this many importance and freedom to act was thanks to… Russia. It turns out ultra-nationalists tend to be very… nationalistic. So even if they share similar ideologies to the RNU Russian fanatics sent by the Russian federation to disrupt the Donbas, they’re hardly friends. Neo-nazis will fight other Neo-nazis in name if their nationalism.

Thus, with an unofficial civil war taking place in the Donbas, the Azov were given more and more room to fight their Russian Nazi counterparts and “separatists”.

It became an example of hypocrisy that the Russian state employing their own Neo-Nazis (RNU militias), Wagner Group and religions fanatics like the Chechens decided they had to invade Ukraine to remove the problem they themselves created.

Wagner Group is another problem. At this point they’re likely the most effective Russian hired military unit still in the war. Almost everything else from the Russian side has been eliminated at this point, or being used as last resort reserves in case the war turns around even more and Russia gets invaded. But even this is very optimistic, they’re practically extinct.

The Wagner are simply put Neo-Nazis. I could give a million reasons as to why this is widely known but the name itself gives it away. It’s named “Wagner” because Wagner was the favorite compositor of the Nazi SS.

This whole liberation charade about how Ukraine is ran by Nazis and every single other reason Putin used to justify his tantrum, they’re pathetic excuses.

Putin never accepted the “loss” of Ukraine to the revolution. The years that followed were just Putin trying to test NATO and Ukraine’s response to his provocations.

He assumed Ukraine would react the exact same manner they did when Russia took Crimeia away from more “separatists”, but it was a failed gamble as we all know now. Nobody extended a welcome mat to the invaders, much the opposite. Putin single handedly managed to ensure no Ukrainian will ever want to be “brothers” with a Russian again, and he managed to wake up NATO and end neutrality in many European countries.

But I digress a bit. The thing is this short lived “rebellion” showed us a couple things, even if it ended rather quickly. Prigozhin is a very popular man in Russia. He speaks, people listen and applaud.

Prigozhin’s accusations damaged the Russian cause more than people give them credit for. He flat out said the invasion was a farce, far more Russians are dying than what the news report, and more importantly he did say the reasons for the invasion are made up: Ukraine wasn’t bombing Russian civilians in the Donbas.

He was careful (and smart) in not implicating Putin directly. Instead he accused the military leaders, his rivals.

Either because he understood he could never “win” if he targeted Putin himself, but potentially because it could be a part of Putin’s plan to end the war without taking any blame for it. Sure, he did go to war, but he was “fooled” by his corrupt and incompetent military advisors. It was a failure, but not “his” failure.

Wagner’s quick advance inside Russia can be explained for two reasons:

Either it was always planned to be that way;

or

Russia simply does not have the strength anymore to defend themselves properly home.

The fact Wagner actually shot down Russian helicopters and killed pilots may mean the whole thing wasn’t staged.

Edited by King Mic
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I apologize if this short gif is against the rules, but it illustrates a bit of what I’m saying when it comes to how out of line Putin has become. He makes zero efforts to hide it.

His speeches and general discourse follow a clear pattern seen in the past. I don’t know is it’s an autocratic thing that makes these leaders basically say the same things, but it’s terrifying. He has paraphrased Hitler as well when talking about the traitorous “flies” and “5th column” inside Russia trying to damage the government, and they had to be “purged” like the gnats they are.

Its shocking.

Edited by King Mic
Typos
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On 7/1/2023 at 6:05 PM, gazisere said:

Russia invaded Ukraine in a 30 day special military operation over a year ago.

"3 day special military operation" was what the Russians called it in the beginning. Of course the glorious Russian army would not waste 30 days taking feeble Ukraine, they can do it in 3! :cute: 

 

The war itself is an odd thing for me, but before I begin to type, I will say that I am 100% in support of Ukraine, so keep that in mind.

 

One thing that has become abundantly clear to me is how this conflict is immediately one of the era-shaping events that will impact the future, and go down in history, alongside events like the Great Depression, the World Wars, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and so forth. With Russia being bled dry by the world as a whole, we are witnessing the slow death by a thousand cuts of one of the three global superpowers that has dominated the global political structure for most of the past 100 years. That is pretty historic.

 

On a personal level, I have a few students currently that are Ukrainian refugees. I am the designated teacher to assist/help/support one of these students, and she fled from Donetsk with her mother. It is hard to not form strong opinions when you get human faces to attach to the situation, and you get to realize the extent of the horrors that occurs on a daily basis.

That is why I get immense amounts of pleasure reading the morning casualty figures for the Russians, and see the progress feeds coming out of Ukraine. I do not have a shred of humanity to give Russians supporting this war. This is what happens when you mess around, and suddenly find out what happens when you interfere with NATO and also the EU.

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

You're definitely hitting this particular nail on its head, Yuan. These are historic events and we will be seeing some massive changes to the structure of the world's order very soon. 

This war has put a spotlight on Russia's informal structure of government and what might happen when Putin falls or is otherwise no longer in office. It's not as simple as dictatorships we've seen fall elsewhere. This isn't just a "next man up" situation. The various spheres of influence that exist are all so powerful that it seems destined for a modern, never before seen type of civil war. Gazprom, for example, is a gas company with its own private army, people representing them openly in the Duma, and territory that belongs to them. Will we see traditional armies led by people like Shoigu battling corporate entities like Gazprom as well? Is Wagner Group's little attempt at a coup about to become the norm in Russia? And of course there are all the vastly wealthy oligarchs and Putin lieutenants who have always been at odds and vying for more influence over the country.

What a mess. And the Russian people will suffer as a result. I'm concerned that the state as a whole will fail and those at the top will continue to hold power over their own individual spheres while the average person is ground into dust. It's heartbreaking and complicated. Morality forces me to consider the human toll a failed Russia would take, but, as you so described, when you see first hand the suffering of Ukrainians its hard not to wish for such a collapse. 

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